Analysis

How to improve the functionality of FeCr market going forward or “Don’t let a tail to wag the dog”

Ferrochrome market continues to show unprecedented divergences at its inter-regional level, combined with some of even greater disproportions within each region between grades usually close in their values and semi-fungible in their usage. For example: the same grade inter-regionally, the price of refined FeCr [...]

How to improve the functionality of FeCr market going forward or “Don’t let a tail to wag the dog”2022-09-21T10:18:32+02:00

Eastern Express. FeCr market in China vs Rest of the World?

During 2021 global FeCr prices rose to the record levels (last seen in 2008), led in H1 2021 by China and followed quickly by the market in the RoW. By the end of H2 a risk of market correction became visible. In China FeCr prices, [...]

Eastern Express. FeCr market in China vs Rest of the World?2022-05-12T09:23:24+02:00

No time to buy? Or not the time to buy? FeCr market in 2021 and looking forward to 2022

Same time last year chrome market was in the middle of uncertainty going forward into 2021, 2021 “No Desperado” or “Quizas, Quizas, Quizas” (Part 2), while other commodities such as nickel, copper and iron ore had already returned to price levels last seen 7-8 years [...]

No time to buy? Or not the time to buy? FeCr market in 2021 and looking forward to 20222022-05-12T15:29:17+02:00

How much is the fish or how to compare different, yet similar? Way forward to make exchange trade of complex alloys

Ferroalloys market continues its rollercoaster: market started to gain steam since Q1 2021, which extended through Q2/Q3, while prices for some of alloys such as ferrochrome reached levels not seen since 2008 by now, after a subpar and highly depressed 2019-2020. Despite such strong movement, [...]

How much is the fish or how to compare different, yet similar? Way forward to make exchange trade of complex alloys2022-05-12T09:23:51+02:00

Is it a bubble when old shoes do not fit a growing foot?

With the price surge for copper, nickel, iron ore and aluminium, there is concern that it is partially driven by speculation, especially with the recent forecast that copper could break 20,000 $/t soon, and that this could be a new price bubble. While there is [...]

Is it a bubble when old shoes do not fit a growing foot?2022-05-12T15:36:21+02:00

Brave Bitcoin World. Just imagine…

Let us imagine for a moment that commodities are priced in Bitcoins* - we would be witnessing commodities hitting some of the lowest price levels, and panic/uncertainty spreading over the market: Luckily for the people involved in commodity industries, commodities are still priced in FIAT [...]

Brave Bitcoin World. Just imagine…2022-05-12T09:45:58+02:00

Pumping the Ball or Inflating the Bubble?

Ferrochrome market have started 2021 with a rapid increase in prices for ferrochrome related products around the globe, by around 10% on average across the major products. The current price surge is the result of robust demand from different sectors, including construction and infrastructure renewal [...]

Pumping the Ball or Inflating the Bubble?2022-05-12T15:38:03+02:00

2021: “No Desperado” or “Quizas, Quizas, Quizas” (Part 2)

By the end of 2020, ferrochrome market is starting to pick up slowly from the multi-year lows. We expected this improvement to start earlier, but slow economic recovery ex-China, also dragged down stainless-steel production and demand (around 3% growth in China vs 13% drop elsewhere [...]

2021: “No Desperado” or “Quizas, Quizas, Quizas” (Part 2)2022-05-12T15:40:22+02:00

Standing at roundabout part 2: prolonged and winding roar to recovery for Cr industry in H2 2020.

The latest Tender Prices from major stainless-steel mills in China have been announced: Tsingshan’s Bidding Price for August stands at 5,997 RMB/t, which corresponds to 69.24 US cents/lb (at 6.9536 exchange rate) Baosteel’s Bidding Price for August stands at 6,000 RMB/t, which corresponds to 69.27 [...]

Standing at roundabout part 2: prolonged and winding roar to recovery for Cr industry in H2 2020.2022-05-12T15:41:36+02:00

“Quizas, Quizas, Quizas”: Cr market expectations for Q3 and its long overdue recovery hopes

Q2 2020 for the ferrochrome industry has been a two-sided event. On one side the supply from major producers has been severely limited, due to shutdowns and lockdowns in South Africa, India and Zimbabwe, combined with reaction to major production cuts in the ferrochrome industry [...]

“Quizas, Quizas, Quizas”: Cr market expectations for Q3 and its long overdue recovery hopes2022-05-12T15:42:24+02:00

Exchange rate and selected prices. Lost in conversion 2

The graph below shows that some countries have experienced severe depreciation of national currencies since the beginning of 2019. The Brazilian Real has been the worst performing currency among developing economies falling about 32%. Over the last 4 years Brazil maintained a 3% share in [...]

Exchange rate and selected prices. Lost in conversion 22022-05-12T15:47:52+02:00

Catch up if you can

In light of recent news from India and South Africa, the Bidding Price for June from Tsingshan and Baosteel stainless-steel producers in China increased by another 500 RMB/t, compared to May (250 RMB/t). Tsingshan’s Bidding Price for June stands at 6,397 RMB/t, which corresponds to [...]

Catch up if you can2022-05-12T15:48:46+02:00

Bad things come in two’s

The current economic situation continues to affect the FeCr market. This is a combination of oversupply of chromium ore, outbreak consequences, and global financial markets volatility massive risk-off. Even before the latest negative factors came onto play this year, the Cr industry situation in 2019 [...]

Bad things come in two’s2022-05-12T15:51:56+02:00

Ferrochrome and viral outbreak in China — what’s ahead?

Over the last few days TSS, TISCO and Baosteel announced their Bidding price rollover for February: TSS price stands at 5797 RMB/t, in US denomination this equals to 66.69 cents per lb of Cr TISCO price stands at 5600 RMB/t, in US denomination this [...]

Ferrochrome and viral outbreak in China — what’s ahead?2022-05-12T16:02:08+02:00

Going short or going long?

During the last week of 2019, major Stainless-steel mills in China have announced their bidding prices and as anticipated before these prices decreased: Tsingshan lowered its bidding price by 200 RMB, settling at 5797 RMB/t, while in USD denomination this equals to 0.66 USD/lb Baosteel lowered [...]

Going short or going long?2022-05-12T16:11:12+02:00

Standing at a roundabout

Recently, major Stainless-steel mills in China have announced their bidding prices: Both Baosteel and Tsingshan decreased their prices by approximately 400 RMB/t, settling at 6,000 and 5,997 RMB/t respectively TISCO on the other hand, continues to keep its Bidding Price at 6,500 RMB/t due to [...]

Standing at a roundabout2022-05-12T16:12:40+02:00

Bolivar cannot carry double

Over the month of October, the ferrochrome industry was puzzled by disaccord in bidding prices and terms from major consumers in China. TISCO was the first to announce their bidding price for October with a sharp increase of 400RMB and changing the term of [...]

Bolivar cannot carry double2022-05-12T16:13:19+02:00

Lost in… conversion

With the summer end, slowdown is starting to ease up. Despite positive market news such as nickel price surge (around 32% since the beginning of July), the overall sentiment of the market is cautious and calculated due to still ongoing risks such as low [...]

Lost in… conversion2022-05-12T16:15:38+02:00

European Benchmark Q3 2019

Last week Merafe released Q3 2019 European Benchmark, which now stands at 1.04 USD/lb, a drop of 13% from 1.20 USD/lb in Q2. Despite a big drop, it falls in line with the current decrease in CIF Shanghai, one of the main indicators of [...]

European Benchmark Q3 20192022-05-12T16:16:22+02:00

No easy way out

TISCO and Tsingshan just announced their June Tender Prices, the drop of 350 RMB/t (6550 RMB/t and 6746 RMB/t respectively). This moves Tender prices to lowest level since May 2018. The most likely scenario for Q3 European Benchmark now is to return to the level [...]

No easy way out2022-05-12T16:17:52+02:00

How big is the fish?

China Tender Price increase for April 2019 As anticipated earlier, April bidding prices were announced at 300 rmb/mt above March level yesterday. Although it is reported marginal in some newsletters, in fact this is a 4% increase in price including VAT, meaning a 7.1% increase of actual price ex [...]

How big is the fish?2022-05-12T16:22:47+02:00

A Step towards the Right Direction

A Step towards the Right Direction The Q2 2019 European Benchmark has just been settled at 1.20 USD/lb, an increase of 7.1%. The announcement came ahead of Chinese ferrochrome bidding prices for April, thus making the European Benchmark the leading indicator for the ferrochrome market this [...]

A Step towards the Right Direction2022-05-27T08:49:19+02:00

Up From the Bottom

Recently, major stainless-steel mills in China have announced their ferrochrome bidding prices for March deliveries. Just like in October, TISCO was the first mill to release the price, possibly to seize the market and hedge itself from sudden price surges. TISCO rolled the price [...]

Up From the Bottom2022-05-12T16:26:25+02:00

Truck tire will not fix town car broken wheel

Recently some of the ferrochrome market participants suggested that international ferrochrome prices should be based on the Chinese Tender Prices. Over the last couple of years, the bidding price in China has become an important part for the global FeCr industry and markets started [...]

Truck tire will not fix town car broken wheel2022-05-12T16:27:57+02:00

Mouse or Elephant — looking forward to Q1 2019

The end of December is approaching, and the ferrochrome industry is preparing for the Q1 European Benchmark announcement. With the current price downturn in all the major markets, it seems reasonable that the benchmark price will go down, the question is by how much? [...]

Mouse or Elephant — looking forward to Q1 20192022-05-12T16:28:57+02:00

FeCr Supply Factors Overview November, 2018

1. ESKOM has been in denial about coal cliff ESKOM is now running short on the coal stocks at the major powerplants. According to South African news sources and Ferroalloynet.com, some of the plants have around 10 days of stockpiles, while the minimum required is at [...]

FeCr Supply Factors Overview November, 20182022-05-12T16:30:08+02:00

Weekly Market Overview: October 22-26, 2018

Eskom wants to increase electricity prices by 15% This is a continues issue that plagues South Africa, despite recent price hike, Eskom still wants to increase it, 15% annually for the next 3 years Price hikes coupled with shortages of electricity and blackouts is one [...]

Weekly Market Overview: October 22-26, 20182022-05-12T16:31:07+02:00

Mouse or Elephant?

If you see a mouse under the inscription of an elephant, do not believe your eyes! EU Benchmark vs CIF China South African FeCr price The above graph represents one of the most puzzling aspects of the ferrochrome industry. The chart shows [...]

Mouse or Elephant?2022-05-12T16:32:41+02:00

And the pendulum continues to swing

The trade tension between China and the USA is gearing up on the daily basis. Recently United States announced that it will implement a 10% duty on all the ferroalloys imported from China. Despite the fact that China is a minor player in the US [...]

And the pendulum continues to swing2022-05-12T16:33:58+02:00

When the smoke is going down

Let’s look at the latest announcement of 700rmb/mt increase for July of ferrochrome bidding price by biggest stainless producer in China. This is widely regarded as the result of the environmental shutdowns in local ferrochrome industry combined with the demand fueled by the monetary easing [...]

When the smoke is going down2022-05-12T16:34:45+02:00

From dusk till dawn. Possible environmental cutbacks and global ferrochrome market in Q3 2018

Currently, the ferrochrome prices have started rising due to potential environmental cutbacks, which are currently being implemented in China. Nevertheless, the effect from the cutbacks will not last long. As discussed, modest increase in China tender prices from May to June (200 RMB/t) was [...]

From dusk till dawn. Possible environmental cutbacks and global ferrochrome market in Q3 20182022-05-12T16:35:44+02:00

Q3 2018 more of the same or change in trend?

As we expressed in our last column, the necessity for FeCr China Tender prices to break 7,000 RMB/t is apparent. Following the latest announcements by stainless-steel mill in China, it is safe to assume that this price is now a new support level. Despite the [...]

Q3 2018 more of the same or change in trend?2022-05-12T16:36:17+02:00

A Few thoughts on the second half of 2018

With the first half of 2018 almost over, we would like to point out couple of observations which we believe are important for the market in the nearest future. China Tender prices recently have been decreasing over the last three months. Although the current [...]

A Few thoughts on the second half of 20182022-05-12T16:37:55+02:00

2018 Episode: A New Hope

While China is enjoying its annul festivities, South Africa has become a center of attention for the ferrochrome and metals industry. The interest is primarily due to the country’s political change, the election of the new president and rapid strengthening of the Rand. Over [...]

2018 Episode: A New Hope2022-05-12T16:41:16+02:00

“Back to the Future”. FeCr Feb tender: more RMB means less Rands per unit

For the second consecutive month, stainless steel producers in China increased their ferrochrome tender prices by 600 RMB/mt, apparently the fundamentals support our expectations. Although this is an increase of 8%, we expect more growth towards the end of the quarter. On top of the [...]

“Back to the Future”. FeCr Feb tender: more RMB means less Rands per unit2022-05-12T16:41:34+02:00

Start of 2018: “For a few dollars more”

With 2018 being only two weeks old, some positive news seems to come. That will hopefully be a positive sign for the 2018 in the Chrome industry. There are indeed some positive indications: High Carbon ferrochrome spot prices continue to rise in China and Japan. [...]

Start of 2018: “For a few dollars more”2022-05-12T16:42:30+02:00

„Tomorrow never dies“ — What is ahead for ferrochrome?

Some positive news are coming this week between Christmas and New Year. As we expected in UNICHROME, major stainless-steel producers in China have announced increase in their tender prices. It is up by 200 RMB/T. We think this is a move in right direction and we [...]

„Tomorrow never dies“ — What is ahead for ferrochrome?2022-05-12T16:43:14+02:00

“Live and Let Die” — a Couple of Thoughts on New Benchmark Developments

Recently, there has been quite a bit of a dynamic development on supply / demand and, obviously, prices for some of Ferroalloys. Let’s take FeSi and some other products like electrodes as an example, which have recently exploded. Seems, ‘security of raw material supply’ has [...]

“Live and Let Die” — a Couple of Thoughts on New Benchmark Developments2022-05-12T16:44:19+02:00

“You Only Live Twice…” Could 2018 be same or more turbulent for Cr than 2017?

Once again, the market is hit by a downward direction right before the end of the year. Chinese tender prices have dropped around 16-17% over the last three months. Still that drop is less than what the market experienced in the first half of the [...]

“You Only Live Twice…” Could 2018 be same or more turbulent for Cr than 2017?2022-05-12T16:44:55+02:00

Q4 2017/Q1 2018

This quarter once has again shown that the market is under the shadow of uncertainty of where the demand from China will go The EU Benchmark for Q4 jumped 26% from Q3, following China tender prices strong behavior during Q3, while in China itself tender [...]

Q4 2017/Q1 20182022-05-12T16:46:25+02:00

UNICHROME presentation at the 3rd CIS Ferroalloys Conference in Tbilisi, Georgia

UNICHROME AG presentation at the 3rd CIS Ferroalloys Conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on September 21-22, 2017 Challenges of global chrome alloys market & CIS suppliers' position in terms of consolidation (English version) Вызовы глобального рынка хромовых сплавов, позиция поставщиков из СНГ в условиях консолидации (Russian version) [...]

UNICHROME presentation at the 3rd CIS Ferroalloys Conference in Tbilisi, Georgia2022-05-12T16:46:42+02:00

Chrome: Recent Market Challenges & Outlook

This presentation was made at the North American Ferroalloys Conference (USA, Chicago, September 6–8, 2017) by UNICHROME AG. Please follow the link to read full text. A few reflections on UNICHROME presentation at AMM Conference in Chicago: published at In the Right Vein by [...]

Chrome: Recent Market Challenges & Outlook2022-05-12T16:47:04+02:00

Mid Q3 Market view: Never say never. Could H2 2017 dynamics of Cr-contained ore and alloys become a “déjà vu” of 2016?

This is to follow up the previous view regarding the market development in the first half of 2017 made in the end of June. It is worth to stress out that the main conclusion was that the price fall in China in May – June [...]

Mid Q3 Market view: Never say never. Could H2 2017 dynamics of Cr-contained ore and alloys become a “déjà vu” of 2016?2022-05-12T16:48:16+02:00

2Q’2017 Market Situation Overview

The Cr market, in particular Cr ore and HC FeCr, started the year 2017 at record high since 2008 price levels. The main reason for this was a combination of robust demand from stainless steel industry with the slowing Cr contained raw material production affected [...]

2Q’2017 Market Situation Overview2022-05-12T16:48:53+02:00